Crashing the playoff race: Smell My Punt and Tokyo surge.

LEGACY PLAYOFF WATCH After Week 9 · November 10, 2026 Six playoff spots. Five weeks left. The race is heating up.

Welcome to the stretch run. The weekly recap becomes Playoff Watch: who is in today, who has the best chance to stay there, and which games could flip the bracket.

The Legends Conference has four teams at 5–4, but only three playoff spots. Crazytrains hold the top seed on total points, Smell My Punt sit second, Tokyo Tsunamis third, and FUBARs are currently outside. In Dynasty, the two Seans lead the way while the league’s highest-scoring team—the Encinitas Sharks—holds the final qualifying spot.

Rules: Six teams qualify: the top three in each conference. Overall season points break record ties. Each conference’s No. 1 seed receives a first-round bye. Five regular-season games remain, through Week 14.

If the season ended today

Legends: Bye — Crazytrains · 5–4 · 1,180.66 points. First round — No. 2 Smell My Punt vs. No. 3 Tokyo Tsunamis.

Dynasty: Bye — Rookies of the Caribbean · 8–1 · 1,182.76 points. First round — No. 2 Huntington Beach Hooligans vs. No. 3 Encinitas Sharks.

This bracket assumes the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds meet within their own conference, with the winner advancing to face that conference’s No. 1 seed.

Legends Conference

Teams are listed in current standings order. Percentages estimate the end-of-season outcome, not current seed position.

#1 Crazytrains — 5–4 | 1,180.66 points | Playoffs: 89.0% | Bye: 53.8%

#2 Smell My Punt — 5–4 | 1,091.70 points | Playoffs: 67.6% | Bye: 17.3%

#3 Tokyo Tsunamis — 5–4 | 1,080.68 points | Playoffs: 66.6% | Bye: 17.4%

#4 FUBARs — 5–4 | 969.36 points | Playoffs: 34.3% | Bye: 5.8%

#5 Team Terry — 4–5 | 1,096.58 points | Playoffs: 37.4% | Bye: 5.3%

#6 Jive Turkeys — 3–6 | 1,004.20 points | Playoffs: 5.0% | Bye: 0.3%

#7 Hawk and Balls — 2–7 | 898.74 points | Playoffs: <0.1% | Bye: <0.1%

Crazytrains — Still in the driver’s seat, but the brakes are squealing. Max’s team has dropped three straight, yet its conference-leading point total provides valuable tiebreak protection. That is why the model still gives Crazytrains the best Legends playoff and bye chances. Week 10 against IRAN Achane on her is a chance to steady the train before later meetings with the Rookies and Hooligans.

Smell My Punt — The hot hand meets a demanding finish. Three straight wins and a 137.21-point average over the last three games have pushed this team into second. The remaining opponents include the Rookies, Hooligans and Sharks. The current cushion over Tokyo is just 11.02 points; second and third could swap on scoring alone.

Tokyo Tsunamis — The wave is building. Mark’s 153.88-point Week 9 explosion delivered Team of the Week honors and a third straight victory. Tokyo currently owns the final qualifying spot, with a 111.32-point tiebreak advantage over FUBARs. Week 10 against the 8–1 Rookies is a major test: an upset would substantially strengthen Tokyo’s position.

FUBARs — Tied for first, outside the bracket. That is the reality of the points tiebreaker. Andy’s club has lost two straight and trails the other three 5–4 teams in total scoring. The record keeps FUBARs firmly alive, but gaining a win on those rivals is a more promising route than relying on a points tie. Next up: the league-leading scorers, Encinitas.

Team Terry — The dangerous team below the line. Four straight losses have left Terry a game back, but its 1,096.58 points are higher than Smell My Punt, Tokyo and FUBARs. Catch one of those teams in record and the points race becomes very relevant. That scoring strength explains why Terry’s modeled playoff chance is slightly higher than FUBARs’ despite the worse record. The remaining schedule is tough, with the Hooligans, Sharks and Rookies still ahead.

Jive Turkeys — An encore needs to start now. Charlie’s team is two games behind the current cutoff, with the Hooligans, Sharks and Rookies still on the schedule. Recent scoring is better than the full-season average, so there is upset potential, but the margin for error is narrow. A Week 10 win would roughly double the model’s playoff estimate.

Hawk and Balls — Deep long-shot territory. At 2–7 and last in conference points, Steve’s team needs an extraordinary finish and substantial help. The model gives a chance below one-tenth of one percent; that is not a mathematical elimination declaration. Week 10 against Love Wands is the immediate opportunity to keep the season moving.

Dynasty Conference

#1 Rookies of the Caribbean — 8–1 | 1,182.76 points | Playoffs: 99.8% | Bye: 74.8%

#2 Huntington Beach Hooligans — 7–2 | 1,143.96 points | Playoffs: 97.3% | Bye: 21.9%

#3 Encinitas Sharks — 5–4 | 1,190.04 points | Playoffs: 82.1% | Bye: 3.2%

#4 Dartmen — 4–5 | 1,086.14 points | Playoffs: 9.7% | Bye: <0.1%

#5 The Dog Haus — 4–5 | 1,077.96 points | Playoffs: 8.5% | Bye: <0.1%

#6 IRAN Achane on her — 3–6 | 1,044.40 points | Playoffs: 1.4% | Bye: <0.1%

#7 Love Wands — 3–6 | 1,041.14 points | Playoffs: 1.3% | Bye: <0.1%

Rookies of the Caribbean — The captain controls the course. Sean McCaffrey’s 8–1 team is the overwhelming qualification favorite and the clear favorite for the bye. The Rookies lead the Hooligans by one win and 38.80 points. Four straight wins have built that advantage, but Tokyo, Smell My Punt and Crazytrains are the next three opponents.

Huntington Beach Hooligans — Chasing the week off. Sean Crumby’s 7–2 team has a strong hold on a playoff position. The bigger prize is catching McCaffrey for the top seed. The Hooligans’ remaining opponents have averaged 117.15 points per game this season, compared with 121.20 for the Rookies’ opponents. That offers a route back into the bye race, though each matchup still has to be won.

Encinitas Sharks — The record understates the bite. The Sharks lead the entire league with 1,190.04 points and hold a one-game lead over both immediate pursuers. They also lead Dartmen by 103.90 points and The Dog Haus by 112.08. That combination makes Encinitas a much stronger playoff favorite than a 5–4 record might suggest. FUBARs are next.

Dartmen — Heating up, but help is required. Three straight wins have revived this team’s season, with 148.68 and 127.04 points in the last two games. Dartmen are a game behind the Sharks and have a significant points deficit to erase if they finish tied. Week 10 against Team Terry is a meaningful bubble game for both conferences.

The Dog Haus — One game back, with little room to coast. Tokyo’s Week 9 eruption handed The Dog Haus a loss despite a respectable 111.86 points. The path involves piling up wins and hoping Encinitas slips. Smell My Punt and Crazytrains are the next two opponents, so the climb begins immediately.

IRAN Achane on her — A late surge is the assignment. At 3–6, Dakota’s team is two games behind the Sharks and trails in points. There is room for a comeback, but it likely takes a very strong finish plus losses from the teams ahead. Beating Crazytrains in Week 10 would provide the needed first jolt.

Love Wands — An opening, followed by a long climb. A Week 9 win over Team Terry stopped the slide and kept the postseason path alive. The remaining opponents have the lowest combined season scoring average among Dynasty teams’ schedules, but a two-game gap and points deficit still make qualification a long shot. Hawk and Balls presents the next chance to build momentum.

Week 10: the biggest swings

These are conditional estimates from the same simulation—not guaranteed outcomes.

FUBARs vs. Encinitas Sharks — Playoff chance with a Week 10 win: 58%; with a loss: 26%.

Team Terry vs. Dartmen — Playoff chance with a Week 10 win: 52%; with a loss: 22%.

Smell My Punt vs. The Dog Haus — Playoff chance with a Week 10 win: 82%; with a loss: 52%.

Tokyo Tsunamis vs. Rookies of the Caribbean — Playoff chance with a Week 10 win: 84%; with a loss: 56%.

Crazytrains vs. IRAN Achane on her — Playoff chance with a Week 10 win: 95%; with a loss: 79%.

The headline game: Tokyo vs. the Rookies. Mark brings three straight wins and the latest weekly scoring crown. McCaffrey brings the league’s best record. Tokyo can strengthen its playoff foothold while the Rookies can tighten their grip on the bye.

The bubble game: Team Terry vs. Dartmen. Both are 4–5. Both need to close a one-game gap. One result will improve a playoff chase in each conference—and damage the other.

How these odds were calculated

These are independent model estimates, not official ESPN playoff odds.

• Source snapshot: ESPN league 931729267, 2026 season, through completed Week 9; retrieved November 10, 2026. Team display names follow the league website, including Team Terry for ESPN Team 15 and Dartmen for ESPN Dartman. • 200,000 simulated seasons follow the actual Week 10–14 matchups. Each simulated week produces team scores, game results and additional points. Teams are ranked separately within each conference by record and then cumulative season points. • Scoring model: Each expected weekly score blends 75% of that team’s Weeks 1–9 average with 25% of the league average. Variance blends the team’s own scoring variance equally with the league’s pooled within-team variance. A shared team-strength draw for each simulated season allows uncertainty about each team’s underlying strength; weekly scores are independent conditional on that strength, floored at zero and rounded to hundredths. • Limitations: No explicit adjustments for current rosters, injuries, future NFL bye weeks, trades or starting-lineup changes. The percentages are sensitive to those factors and the model’s assumptions. A high probability does not mean a berth is clinched, and a very small probability does not prove elimination. Values below 0.1% are displayed as “<0.1%”; rounding can affect column totals. • Reproducibility: Random seed 20261110. Historical results were checked against official wins and points totals. Each conference’s unrounded playoff probabilities sum to 300%, and its bye probabilities to 100%.

Sources: ESPN league 931729267 (2026 season, through Week 9) and legacyfantasyfootball.com.